Eighteen teams. Seven months. Twenty-four rounds. And now, with a "wildcard weekend", 11 not nine finals. But still just one AFL premiership. It's why, in 2026, they're harder than ever to win. And it goes without saying, incredibly tough to predict.
It's never been tighter at the top of the ladder, certainly. Last season, the team finishing the regular season sixth was just two wins away from top. And now with effectively a final 10, more than half the competition will still have at least a theoretical shot at a flag once the regular season is over.
So who are the genuine contenders? Who are the pretenders? Which of them could go either way? Here's how I think the 2026 AFL season could pan out.
A CLASS OF THEIR OWN
Last year, I felt like Brisbane's best was the best any team had to offer, but Geelong was more likely to produce it when it mattered most. Grand final day certainly put paid to that theory.
The Lions not only have the talent and the depth, they have the requisite mental toughness, too, which enabled them to reverse a qualifying final loss to the Cats in the big one. So, what's to stop them becoming the second Brisbane outfit to make it a premiership hat-trick? Absolutely nothing.
The Lions' list is the stuff of nightmares for rivals. You know the names; Neale, McCluggage, Andrews, Dunkley, Ashcroft x 2, Zorko, Bailey, Rayner etc, etc. Then consider the "but wait, there's more" factor.
A very handy ruckman in Sam Draper, a star key forward in Oscar Allen, are additions to the blend. Then the guys who didn't play a part in last year's triumph, the likes of Keidean Coleman, Lincoln McCarthy and Tom Doedee. It's phenomenal depth. And while Brisbane is the second-oldest and second-most experienced list behind Collingwood, it has a far deeper pool of players at their peak who still have many years left in them.
Indeed, I'd argue this version of the Lions is in a far sweeter spot for a flag hat-trick than were either of the other two teams to accomplish the feat this century, Brisbane of 2001-03, and Hawthorn 2013-15
Simply, if the Lions maintain their hunger, you'd be silly not to tip them to win it again.
EVERY CHANCE OF WINNING IT
Which doesn't mean it's a sure thing, of course. Geelong and Adelaide did finish higher on the regular season ladder than the Lions in 2025. And Gold Coast did inflict on Brisbane its heaviest loss, an 11-goal late-season thumping.
There's conservatively another half-dozen sides who could take the Lions on a given day, too. But Brisbane's stellar performances when push came to shove in 2025 have convinced me it's going to take something really special rather than merely playing the percentages to dethrone them.
That's why I have the Cats, Crows and Suns next in terms of premiership probability. And yes, there's an element of risk attached to two of them at least.
Adelaide's straight-sets finals exit after finishing on top was spectacular. Gold Coast, after sensationally winning its first final, in Perth, no less, was comprehensively beaten by the eventual premier in its second.
But I reckon both the Crows and Suns have a potential ceiling even the more seasoned likes of Hawthorn and Collingwood can't necessarily match if all are playing at their optimum.
Izaak Rankine's incredibly costly homophobic slur completely threw Adelaide perhaps more than it should have. But bottom line is the Crows have a defence as solid as anyone's, an attack as potent as anyone's, and a quick, direct style of play which maximises targets like Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker.
I also suspect that massive September crash might have stung enough to give Matthew Nicks' team a bit more resolve in 2026. I think they're in this flag race up to their eyeballs.
Ditto the Suns, even though a solitary finals win to flag contender in one season is still a massive leap.
What Gold Coast does have though, is the capacity to learn very quickly via a triple premiership coach in Damien Hardwick, and on-field knowledge and big-time experience of the likes of Daniel Rioli and John Noble.
It's taken a calculated punt on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan throwing off his lifestyle issues at a new home and city, but he's a potential deadly tandem with the proven Ben King. And as for the midfield; well Brownlow medallist Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and now Christian Petracca is to put it mildly, blue chip stock.
Geelong? Well, the Cats are just perennials, aren't they? Yes, they chose the worst day to serve up an ordinary performance last September, but no longer can we dismiss any Cat campaign which falls short as "end of an era", because while Patrick Dangerfield, Jeremy Cameron and Tom Stewart are long in the tooth, dual best and fairest Max Holmes, Bailey Smith, Ollie Dempsey and co. certainly aren't.
COULD SEE THE POINTY END
You'd be pretty brave to completely dismiss the chances of Hawthorn or Collingwood from being part of the group above, too. They're the two beaten preliminary finalists of last year, after all. My reservations are thus...
In the case of the Hawks, it's that midfield group, which failed to pick up disgruntled Bomber Zach Merrett in trading, bid farewell to a very handy foot solider in James Worpel, and now again has the classy ball use of Will Day for at least the first half of the season. Their best, as demonstrated in two big finals upsets against GWS and Adelaide, is very, very good. Can they produce enough of it? Not a given.
And Collingwood? The oldest list in the comp (nine players over 30) defied prophecies of doom last year to sit at or near the top of the ladder all season, then pulled a great road win over Adelaide. It couldn't match Brisbane's class when it mattered, though.
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There's still a reasonable amount of dependence, too, on the contributions of the likes of Scott Pendlebury (now 38), Steele Sidebottom (35) and Jamie Elliott. Their forward set-up can be hit or miss, too, and is now without reliable warhorse Brody Mihocek, who has headed to Melbourne.
Fremantle has really tested the patience of its support base for a long time now. An infamous home final loss to debutant Gold Coast will have increased the angst further still. But the Dockers are a fundamentally very solid group who won 12 of their last 14 home-and-away games last season and have genuine stars the calibre of Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw and hopefully a fitter and more durable Hayden Young.
Some greater efficiency in attack and a little more adventurousness with ball in hand going forward and the leap Freo needs to make to mix it with the absolute best is minimal indeed.
Sydney is another side you wouldn't be surprised seeing vault up the ladder again. The Swans were crippled by injury all season last year, yet still finished strongly enough for 12 wins.
There's a massive "in" for Sydney, too, in the shape of yet another big-name key forward to head north for a change of scenery (remember Tony Lockett, Barry Hall and Buddy Franklin?) Charlie Curnow has had an ordinary couple of years, but any Coleman medallist has to be considered a potent addition to the mix.
And the Swans, while now without Will Hayward and Ollie Florent, simply have to be better for more continuity and game time from the likes of Errol Gulden, Tom Papley, Callum Mills, Joel Amartey and Logan McDonald. Season two for coach Dean Cox might be a lot more palatable than was his senior coaching debut.
As for the Western Bulldogs, lord knows how frustrated their fans must be by the returns of two losing elimination finals and two misses altogether in the last four years, given the undoubted quality of their list.
Last year, I tipped them for top four. But I've run out of patience. The only reason they're not in the section below is that simply reaching finals is nowhere near a win for a squad which should be aspiring to far more. The Dogs still have enough talent, however, not to be discounted from doing something of substance.
MAKING FINALS WOULD BE A WIN
So who'd be happy just to make it? Well, the new finals wildcard means you only have to finish in the top 10 to feature in September. Anything less simply equals failure now. With the odd caveat. Which perhaps applies to Greater Western Sydney this year.
The Giants have had some shocking luck on the injury front over the years, and it's already happening again now, exemplified by the catastrophic ACL injury to star midfielder Tom Green which has put him out for the whole season.
He's not the only one, though. Josh Kelly will miss most of the year, too, as will livewire little man Darcy Jones, and Sam Taylor and Toby Bedford will also have delayed starts. The arrival of former Demon premiership player Clayton Oliver couldn't have been more timely. But a couple more breaks on the fortune front and the Giants could still play a part.
Of my five teams in this group, I think Melbourne would be most satisfied with getting even to a wildcard final given its various upheavals and departure of Petracca and Oliver.
But new coach Steven King will have plenty of goodwill aimed his way, trade-ins Jack Steele and Brody Mihocek are great clubmen who can add a lot on and off the track, and the Dees do have some really good kids in the shape of Caleb Windsor, Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay.
There'll be lots of focus on St Kilda in 2026 after the Saints' trading spree netted Jack Silvagni, Tom De Koning, Liam Ryan and Sam Flanders. That's a considerable influx of talent and seniority.
And yet AFL "buying sprees" in the modern era don't have a great track record. Is there enough out-and-out class beyond emerging superstar Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera? I've still got my doubts. Ditto the Saints' methodology. Does what worked for Ross Lyon as a coach a decade ago still work now? This could be a good test.
Carlton and Port Adelaide are two more clubs continually under the spotlight for various reasons.
The Blues have certainly transformed the list, some big names like Curnow, De Koning and Silvagni gone, the likes of Will Hayward, Ollie Florent, Ben Ainsworth and Liam Reidy into the mix. They'll look different, they'll play differently. Will there be enough overall talent to eke out more than a lower finals spot, though? I'm not convinced.
Ditto the Power. There's a new coach in Josh Carr, finally, after a clunky handover year from Ken Hinkley which seemed to do more damage to Port's stocks than enhance them. But as good as the likes of Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis are, is there enough talent around them? Again, not convinced.
WON'T PLAY FINALS
Finally, in this day and age, with the capacity of teams to turn situations around quickly and with the evenness generally of AFL lists, declaring any side a non-finalist is fraught with danger, but it's not a huge call regardless to say North Melbourne, Essendon, Richmond and West Coast won't play finals.
The Tigers are showing some OK signs under Adem Yze, but still need plenty of seasoning, North Melbourne should be more advanced than it is but still has a worrying tendency to clock off mentally, Essendon is really only now embracing wholly the need to rebuild, and West Coast is several years away yet from righting the list neglect which followed its last flag, now eight years ago.
If any of this quartet end up playing a part in September, yep, mark me down as majorly surprised.